2026 CFP · Independent projection
College Football Playoff Projections
COMPARE models possible season endings from its own ratings, rather than reproducing the selection committee’s opinions. These are projections, not official CFP selections.
Playoff Probability Leaders
| Team | Playoff | Bye (top four) | Conf. title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 95.3% | 64.4% | 0.0% |
| Miami (FL) | 94.5% | 68.2% | 66.4% |
| Liberty | 94.1% | 70.3% | 78.4% |
| Ohio State | 81.3% | 39.2% | 37.8% |
| Boise State | 73.4% | 26.6% | 62.0% |
| Indiana | 69.8% | 21.0% | 20.2% |
| Alabama | 67.5% | 16.6% | 18.4% |
| UCLA | 62.6% | 12.8% | 28.9% |
| Wake Forest | 56.5% | 11.5% | 24.3% |
| Arizona | 48.7% | 13.2% | 27.2% |
| Georgia | 44.5% | 10.4% | 30.9% |
| Northwestern | 41.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% |
| Nebraska | 38.4% | 6.3% | 0.5% |
| Utah | 38.1% | 3.3% | 29.8% |
| Texas Tech | 38.0% | 7.4% | 17.5% |
| Louisiana State | 37.9% | 6.8% | 10.9% |
| New Mexico | 32.4% | 4.4% | 48.6% |
| North Dakota State | 29.1% | 1.9% | 33.5% |
| Texas | 22.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% |
| James Madison | 19.1% | 1.3% | 64.5% |
| Kentucky | 17.4% | 0.1% | 16.2% |
| Brigham Young | 14.6% | 0.5% | 12.1% |
| Wisconsin | 14.5% | 1.2% | 4.9% |
| Southern Methodist | 8.5% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| Memphis | 8.0% | 0.2% | 22.3% |